China Fur Market Forecast and Analysis in 2012

Environmental factors The market trends of all walks of life are inseparable from this “big environment”. It is a macro price index. Here we refer to two major economic planes. One is the domestic economic environment, and the other is the foreign economic environment. These two determine the development trend of our domestic sales and foreign trade. To give a clear example, in the financial crisis of 2008, the shrinking of foreign trade exports directly affected the domestic real economy. The foreign trade environment was sluggish, and the domestic environment was in a sluggish state. As a result, various raw hides had the lowest prices by the end of 2008. (The friends who used to watch news may all know that they have lost money in that year.) Since the economic stimulus policies of various countries were introduced in 2009, the economies of various countries have improved in the second half of the year and have seen growth. Various raw hide prices have also touched. Bottom rebound. This shows that the development trend of the macro environment is actually a “wind indicator” of the general trend of the development of all industries and industries. Maybe I'm a little general, so I'll explain it again. In the past two years, we have felt the prices of raw hides in the second half of 2007, the prices of raw hides in 2008 and the first half of 2009, and how much they have risen. We all know what we have in mind, and we are also sighing at the price of these raw materials. Not rising.... . The economy is a big environment. All walks of life can be described in a general manner as "one game of chess." Its development trend is similar under the development trend of the big environment. (Of course, it cannot be used in all industries. It can be thought of in a general way.) Speaking of this, analyzing the domestic economic environment can be a simple understanding of the CPI, CDP, and PPI. When it comes to CPI, we have to pay attention to it. Recall that at the beginning of 2010, the CPI for the country’s macro goals was 3%, which was set at the beginning of 2011. The 4% is obviously referring to the level of price inflation in early 2011, so it can be analyzed that the price index in early 2011 will not be low. If an attentive friend can recall the CPI of the previous year, see if there are similarities in our fur trend (of course, there are too many types of fur and they will not be similar to each other). Recalling the import of rabbit skins in mid-October of 2011, rabbit hides had a significant drop, and the CPI also experienced such a drop. Some industries also experienced the same decline. (Perhaps everyone has an impression of the decline in vegetable prices at that time.) Having said that, let us use some macro economic data to analyze the trend of this year's market. First of all, this foreign trade crisis, the European debt crisis has not yet In the end, the impact of the recession in foreign trade in the second half of last year has already emerged. Most economists report pessimistic attitudes on the impact of the European debt crisis and can conclude that the foreign trade situation in the first half of the year will be less optimistic than last year. As for the domestic economic environment (I haven't got a clear understanding, I don't comment here), but from the perspective of the processing factories and sales businesses that responded last year, this year's domestic sales should maintain a steady growth.

Weather Factors Processed fur products are directly constrained by weather factors in the end consumer market. I remember that in the second half of 2009, the minimum temperature in Hengshui, Hebei Province reached minus 15 degrees. There was a heavy snowfall before and after. I remember that if it was snowing, it would be very powerful. It also included other fur types. In many foreign countries that year, the temperature was relatively low. The most representative is the "Millennium Polarity" promulgated by the media in the second half of 2010, which led many manufacturers to prepare goods in advance, that is, when the price of many types of furs rose sharply, many records were refreshed. Remember that time The price of the rabbit has also reached a high price. Later it was confirmed that it was not "Millennium's extreme cold" and the price fell subsequently. Before and after the winter in mid-October 2011, the weather was still warm. In previous years, the sales business had already put autumn clothes off into winter clothes. At that time, it was still selling autumn clothes. If winter clothes were sold on shelves, they could not be sold. The sales situation can be imagined, so many manufacturers have to reduce production, and some even stop production, the direct reduction in demand caused a sharp drop in prices, then the import. Domestic rabbit skins and all kinds of rabbit hides have seen a sharp drop over the past year. (Of course, the reason of the weather is not a direct factor that affects the fur price, but I personally think that the weather factor also plays an important role to a certain extent). At the beginning of the new year, many countries in many parts of the country have experienced extremely cold weather. Although in some countries or some regions, fur sales have already passed the season, the impact of the relationship is good, at least in the end. Play a certain degree of stability. (If the extreme cold of this time comes to October 2011, friends do you think the market will be the same as now?) Therefore, analyzing the market, it is sometimes necessary to consider the weather.

Psychological factors I think sometimes when the fur trades, it is actually a psychological warfare. Psychological factors are the bottom line of your psychological price acceptance. Can be divided into two cases, one is blind psychology, the direct effect is that the market is optimistic about the short-term, prices will rise slightly "or harder", such as the current market can not be expected, the middleman's hoarding behavior, many people are optimistic After the market, psychological confidence, emboldened, and began to pick up goods, this "confident" psychological conduction will also attract many friends to hoard, because the terminal market did not start, prices rose slightly. There is no motivation for a substantial increase. Furthermore, when farmers see that a certain species has good returns, they can be launched in large quantities and can also be attributed to these psychological reasons. Another psychological reason is that when the terminal market starts, when the market conditions are good, people's psychological confidence is sufficient. On the contrary, people are panic-stricken, breaking the jar, and prices will fall sharply. Therefore, it should be a common saying: buy up or not buy. So sometimes going to the market and listening to most people’s psychological views may be good for themselves.

The cost factor cost is the most direct factor of the relationship benefit. Last year, various costs rose, workers’ wages rose, raw materials rose, freight rates rose due to rising oil prices, and rental prices rose, resulting in reduced profits, tightening SME funding and increasing pressure. What will happen this year? Raw materials will decline correspondingly last year. The country may further support SMEs on credit, and may also implement some slightly looser policies (according to news media).

Supply-demand relationship Supply-demand relationship plays a decisive factor in the development of the market. The "seeking" in the supply and demand relationship is the "motivation" for the development of the market. If the demand is strong and the supply is high, the price will rise and at least it will remain stable. And “supply” is the “base” for market development. If demand is generally weak, prices will fall. Last year's Rex rabbit skin was the best example. In fact, the demand did not go up, but the supply was large and the price dropped dramatically. Due to the hoarding of middlemen, prices remained stable or rose slightly. However, the demand did not really come up. The participation of middlemen only played a temporary support role. Therefore, when the market opened this year, the price may be harder. According to the current situation, the real demand will not go up. After two months, I will feel less optimistic. What will happen in the second half of the year? The relationship between supply and demand also includes the hoarding behavior of middlemen, sometimes with some lag. However, we have passed through some buyers, some processing manufacturers, some end-consumer businesses, and the information we know. This is more reliable than any analysis.

The opening of the market in 2012 has begun to slowly recover. According to the psychological factors of the big guys at this time of year, the price may be harder than the price at the end of the year. At the very least, it will remain the same, so what will the spring market be like? This needs to be based on this time. The order quantity analysis is only reliable, oh, but I personally think that the first two or three months will remain stable, and even a slight increase, then after the decline is possible, or that, look at the number of orders .