From October 1st to December 5th, India’s total cotton arrivals reached 7 million bales (each bale weighing 170 kg), marking a significant volume compared to the same period last year when arrivals totaled 7.2 million bales. Despite this, regional variations in cotton supply have become more pronounced.
In Gujarat, the country’s main cotton market, arrivals fell by 15% year-on-year, reaching 2.3 million bales. Similarly, cotton inflows in Maharashtra remained sluggish, while Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh saw only marginal increases. This uneven distribution has raised concerns among traders about the overall supply chain efficiency.
Although cotton production this year is reported to have risen to 32.5 million bales—up from 29.5 million bales last year—the actual arrival of cotton at markets remains lower than expected. This discrepancy could be attributed to delayed harvesting or logistical challenges.
Most farmers are reportedly recovering their cash costs due to a near-doubling of cotton prices this season. As a result, many are holding back on selling their stock, according to a local dealer. The price surge was driven largely by export demand, as international buyers rushed to secure contracts before the December 15 deadline.
The Indian government has imposed an export quota of 5.5 million bales for this season, with the final date for exports set at December 15. However, industry experts believe that only 300,000 to 3.5 million bales will actually be exported, given the sharp rise in domestic prices. This increase has made it harder for importers to compete, leading to a slowdown in trade activity.
One representative from the Indian Cotton Company noted that the price of six types of Sankar cotton has hit a record high of 45,500 rupees per candi (1 candi equals 356 kg). Last year, the same variety was priced as low as 32,200 rupees per candi, highlighting the dramatic shift in market dynamics.
With the export window closing soon and prices continuing to climb, the cotton sector remains under close scrutiny, as stakeholders navigate the complex interplay between domestic demand, international trade, and farmer expectations.
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