On Tuesday (February 28), the central bank's open market operations maintained a net return of funds, and the market funds were further tightened due to the impact of the end of the month. The main term repurchase rate was significantly higher. Analysts pointed out that the central bank's operations once again demonstrated its attitude of maintaining a tight liquidity balance. Looking forward to March, considering the factors such as the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the slowdown in capital outflows, and the release of fiscal deposits, the funds or problems in the first half of the month are not large, and we need to be alert to the risk of liquidity fluctuations at the end of the quarter.
OMO net withdrawal for four consecutive days
On February 28th, the central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 30 billion yuan, including 10 billion yuan for 7 days, 14 days and 28 days. The winning rates were 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.65% respectively. The interest rates were the same as last time. On the same day, the scale of the reverse repurchase was reduced to 80 billion yuan, but it still achieved a net return of 50 billion yuan, which was a net withdrawal for the fourth consecutive day.
At the end of the month, the superposition of the central bank continued to return to the net, and the funds continued to tighten yesterday, and the interest rate of funds rose across the board. On the 28th, Shibor rose most, with Shibor rising 5.92bp to 2.4930% overnight; 7-day Shibor rose 1.7bp to 2.7280%, 1-month fell 0.2bp to 4.0800%; 3-month rose 0.37bp to 4.2841%.
In the inter-bank pledged repo market (deposit institutions), the overnight and 7-day weighted interest rates were reported at 2.5521% and 2.7330%, respectively, which were 15BP and 16BP higher than the previous day, and the 14-day weighted interest rate was nearly 3BP to 3.5468%. The longer-term 21-day weighted rate is up 4BP to 4.05%.
According to market sources, yesterday's funds continued to be in a tense situation in the morning, and the big banks were very few, and most of them were non-bank institutions, with a small amount and high prices. Most of the overnight and 7-day demand could not be met, and the melting mechanism gradually decreased over time, and there was basically no overnight and 7-day meltdown in the afternoon. There are still some meltdowns in 14 days and 21 days, but the price requirements are relatively high, and the demand for 1 month and above is light. At the end of the day, there are a small number of mechanisms for the melt-out operation.
End of season capital fabric pressure
Analysts pointed out that in the first half of March, it is still expected to remain basically stable. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the short term, the capital outflow pressure will slow down, and the maturity of funds will not be large in March; on the other hand, in history, more than March The net release period for fiscal deposits will bring a certain amount of liquidity supply, and it is expected that the central bank will continue to provide the right amount of base money through OMO and MLF operations. However, under the influence of factors such as the end of the season assessment, the volatility may increase again.
As of February 28, the total amount of reverse repurchase in March was 890 billion yuan, including 100 billion yuan for 7 days, 330 billion yuan for 14 days, and 460 billion yuan for 28 days for reverse repurchase. There are 194 billion yuan 6 months MLF expires.
Industry insiders expect that the central bank will carry out reverse repurchase and MLF to hedge the liquidity due to the situation, and its intention to maintain the fund is still the same, and the net deposit of fiscal deposits in March will also supplement certain liquidity. In addition, the recent market expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike weakened, the US dollar index remained volatile, the domestic economy continued to stabilize, coupled with a stable and neutral monetary policy tone, the RMB will remain stable against the US dollar in the short term, which will help ease the pressure of capital outflows.
However, market participants pointed out that in the second half of March, commercial banks will usher in the first MPA assessment this year. Because of the inclusion of off-balance sheet financing in generalized credit, or MPA and LCR assessments have more impact on liquidity, follow-up still needs to be alert to the end of the quarter. The risk of increased volatility. Overall, under the tone of a stable and neutral monetary policy, the funding side is still difficult and difficult.
(Editor: Liu Suyuan HN091)
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